{"id":4449,"date":"2026-03-25T15:24:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T15:24:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/predict-act-would-bar-federal-officials-from-political-prediction-market-trades-and-impose-10-civil-penalties\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T15:24:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T15:24:18","slug":"predict-act-would-bar-federal-officials-from-political-prediction-market-trades-and-impose-10-civil-penalties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/predict-act-would-bar-federal-officials-from-political-prediction-market-trades-and-impose-10-civil-penalties\/","title":{"rendered":"PREDICT Act would bar federal officials from political prediction\u2011market trades and impose 10% civil penalties"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--NACM_LINK_HIGHLIGHT_HOVER_CSS--><\/p>\n<style>\n\/* ===============================\n   NACM HIGHLIGHT ITEM HOVER\n   =============================== *\/\n.nacm-highlight-item{\n  transition: box-shadow .25s ease, transform .25s ease;\n}\n.nacm-highlight-item:hover{\n  box-shadow:0 14px 34px rgba(0,0,0,0.22) !important;\n  transform: translateY(-1px);\n}\n<\/style>\n<p><!--NACM_LINK_DEFAULT_HOVER_CSS--><\/p>\n<style>\n\/* ===============================\n   NACM DEFAULT LINK BOX HOVER\n   =============================== *\/<\/p>\n<p>\/* \u2705 \uae30\ubcf8\ud615 \ubc15\uc2a4 hover: \uadf8\ub9bc\uc790 \uac15\ud654 (inline box-shadow\ub3c4 \ub36e\uc5b4\uc500) *\/\n.nacm-link-wrapper .nacm-link-box{\n  transition: box-shadow .25s ease, transform .25s ease;\n}\n.nacm-link-wrapper .nacm-link-box:hover{\n  box-shadow:0 14px 32px rgba(0,0,0,0.18) !important;\n}<\/p>\n<p>\/* \u2705 \uae30\ubcf8\ud615 \ub9c1\ud06c hover: \uc0c9\uc0c1 \ubcc0\uacbd (WP \uc804\uc5ed a:hover \ub36e\uc5b4\uc500) *\/\n.nacm-link-wrapper a.nacm-link{\n  transition: color .2s ease;\n}\n.nacm-link-wrapper a.nacm-link:hover{\n  color:#1e88ff !important;\n  text-decoration:none !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<p><!--NACM_STRONG_CSS--><\/p>\n<style>\n.nacm-strong{\n  font-weight: normal;\n  text-decoration: underline;\n  text-decoration-color: #e53935;\n  text-decoration-thickness: 2.5px;\n  text-underline-offset: 3px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<p>Congress is zeroing in on insider\u2011trading risks in prediction markets: the <strong class=\"nacm-strong\">PREDICT<\/strong> <strong class=\"nacm-strong\">Act<\/strong> and several companion bills would explicitly forbid federal elected officials, their families and senior appointees from trading on contracts tied to government actions or politically sensitive events, and would attach civil penalties and disgorgement for violations.<\/p>\n<h2>Who these bills single out and what they would ban<\/h2>\n<p>The PREDICT Act, introduced by Representatives Nikki Budzinski (D\u2011IL) and Adrian Smith (R\u2011NE), would bar members of Congress, the President, Vice President, immediate family members and senior political appointees from buying or selling prediction\u2011market contracts tied to political events or government actions. Violations carry a civil penalty equal to 10% of the transaction value plus disgorgement of any profits, with disgorged funds directed to the U.S. Treasury.<\/p>\n<p>Other measures run parallel to PREDICT: Senator Adam Schiff\u2019s DEATH BETS Act prohibits contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination or death on federally regulated exchanges, while Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar\u2019s End Prediction Market Corruption Act targets federal officials trading on nonpublic information. Ethics groups including CREW and POGO have publicly supported those restrictions.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;border:1px solid #999;\">\n<tr>\n<th style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;text-align:left;\">Bill<\/th>\n<th style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;text-align:left;\">Sponsor(s)<\/th>\n<th style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;text-align:left;\">Primary prohibition<\/th>\n<th style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;text-align:left;\">Penalty \/ target<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">PREDICT Act<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Reps. Nikki Budzinski, Adrian Smith<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">No trading by members of Congress, President, VP, senior appointees, families on political\/government contracts<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Civil penalty 10% of transaction + disgorgement to U.S. Treasury<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">DEATH BETS Act<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Sen. Adam Schiff<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Bans contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, death on federally regulated exchanges<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Prohibitory; enforcement via federal regulators<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">End Prediction Market Corruption Act<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Sens. Jeff Merkley, Amy Klobuchar<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Prevents federal officials profiting from nonpublic information in event contracts<\/td>\n<td style=\"border:1px solid #999;padding:6px;\">Targeted bans; enforcement aims to protect public trust<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Concrete episodes that pushed lawmakers to act<\/h2>\n<div class=\"nacm-desktop-only\">\n<div class=\"nacm-link-wrapper\" style=\"width:90%;margin:28px auto;\">\n<div class=\"nacm-link-box-title\" style=\"font-size:0.9em;font-weight:800;margin:0 0 12px 4px;letter-spacing:0.3px;\">You May Also Like<\/div>\n<style>\n\/* \u2705 \uce74\ub4dc \uac1c\ubcc4 hover *\/\n.nacm-card-item{\n  transition: box-shadow .25s ease;\n}\n.nacm-card-item:hover{\n  box-shadow:0 14px 30px rgba(0,0,0,.18);\n}<\/p>\n<p>\/* \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300 *\/\n.nacm-card-item .nacm-card-img{\n  overflow:hidden;\n}\n.nacm-card-item .nacm-card-img img{\n  transition:transform .35s ease;\n}\n.nacm-card-item:hover .nacm-card-img img{\n  transform:scale(1.06);\n}<\/p>\n<p>\/* \ud0c0\uc774\ud2c0 \uc0c9\uc0c1 *\/\n.nacm-card-item .nacm-card-title a{\n  transition:color .25s ease;\n}\n.nacm-card-item:hover .nacm-card-title a{\n  color:#1e88ff !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"nacm-link-box nacm-link-box--card\" style=\"border:1px solid #e5e7eb;border-radius:16px;padding:18px;background:#fff;\">\n<div class=\"nacm-card-item\" style=\"display:flex;gap:18px;align-items:stretch;border-radius:14px;overflow:hidden;border:1px solid #eef0f3;\">\n<div class=\"nacm-card-img\" style=\"flex:0 0 40%;max-width:40%;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/city-skyline-under-blue-sky-during-daytime.webp\" alt=\"&#8220;How Disorderly Conduct Challenges Casino Management and Public Behavior Norms&#8221;\" style=\"width:100%;height:100%;object-fit:cover;display:block;\" \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding:14px 16px;flex:1;min-width:0;\">\n<div class=\"nacm-card-title\" style=\"font-size:1.08em;font-weight:800;line-height:1.25;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/how-disorderly-conduct-challenges-casino-management-and-public-behavior-norms\/\" target=\"_self\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\">&#8220;How Disorderly Conduct Challenges Casino Management and Public Behavior Norms&#8221;<\/a><\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-top:6px;font-size:0.9em;line-height:1.45;color:#6b7280;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-line-clamp:2;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;overflow:hidden;\">Incident Overview On June 19, 2023, a startling incident at Parx Casino in Bensalem, Pennsylvania, turned heads when William R. Compton, a 53-year-old from Manalapan, was arrested for urinating in a slot machine coin tray. This bizarre act highlights unpredictable behaviors that can surface in gaming environments. It also underscores the serious legal consequences that [&hellip;]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<style>\n@media (max-width:768px){\n  .nacm-desktop-only{display:none!important;}\n  .nacm-mobile-only{display:block!important;}\n}\n@media (min-width:769px){\n  .nacm-mobile-only{display:none!important;}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"nacm-mobile-only\" style=\"width:92%;margin:16px auto;\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/how-disorderly-conduct-challenges-casino-management-and-public-behavior-norms\/\" target=\"_self\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"\n    display:flex;\n    gap:10px;\n    align-items:center;\n    padding:10px;\n    border:1px solid #e0e0e0;\n    border-radius:6px;\n    margin-bottom:10px;\n    background:#fff;\n  \"><br \/>\n    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/city-skyline-under-blue-sky-during-daytime.webp\" alt=\"&#8220;How Disorderly Conduct Challenges Casino Management and Public Behavior Norms&#8221;\" style=\"\n      width:64px;\n      height:64px;\n      object-fit:cover;\n      border-radius:4px;\n      flex-shrink:0;\n    \"><\/p>\n<div style=\"\n      font-size:14px;\n      font-weight:600;\n      line-height:1.4;\n      color:#111;\n      display:-webkit-box;\n      -webkit-line-clamp:2;\n      -webkit-box-orient:vertical;\n      overflow:hidden;\n    \">&#8220;How Disorderly Conduct Challenges Casino Management and Public Behavior Norms&#8221;<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p>Recent, well\u2011timed trades on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket \u2014 including contracts referencing Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader and possible military escalations \u2014 prompted congressional attention and press scrutiny. Lawmakers cited these incidents as examples where privileged or advance information could have been used to profit from event contracts, a dynamic unlike ordinary wagers because it intersects with access to classified or nonpublic policy knowledge.<\/p>\n<p>Platforms have responded unevenly: Kalshi and others state internal rules against insider trading and have removed or restricted some sensitive contracts, but members of Congress and ethics groups argue platform policies alone aren\u2019t a reliable substitute for statutory prohibitions and independent enforcement.<\/p>\n<h2>How enforcement could work and where to watch next<\/h2>\n<p>Most of these bills either expand explicit prohibitions or clarify federal authority \u2014 notably the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) \u2014 to police prediction markets. A key next checkpoint is whether and how the CFTC issues implementing rules or guidance: investigators will need authority to subpoena trading records, tie transactions to specific officials, and calculate disgorgement if the PREDICT Act\u2019s 10% civil\u2011penalty framework becomes law.<\/p>\n<p>Political dynamics matter: some Republican lawmakers and officials have signaled support for &#8220;lawful innovation&#8221; in markets; the draft record shows CFTC leadership under former administrations weighing industry growth alongside risk mitigation. That mix suggests congressional language, not just agency pronouncements, will shape the speed and scope of enforcement \u2014 so traders should watch bill markups, committee votes and any CFTC rulemaking filings for concrete timing.<\/p>\n<h2>Practical checks for traders and platform operators<\/h2>\n<div class=\"nacm-image-wrapper\" style=\"width:90%;margin:28px auto;border-radius:18px;overflow:hidden;box-shadow:0 16px 36px rgba(0,0,0,0.22);\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/spacious-conference-room-equipped-with-modern-technology-and-microphones-for-meetings.webp\" alt=\"Spacious conference room equipped with modern technology and microphones for meetings.\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\" \/><\/div>\n<p>If you trade or run a platform, expect three actions to materially change your risk profile: (1) formal bans on federal officials and defined family members, (2) explicit prohibitions on violent\u2011event contracts on regulated exchanges, and (3) new evidence\u2011based enforcement steps from the CFTC or federal courts. Those are the thresholds that should trigger account reviews, updated terms of service, and enhanced transaction monitoring.<\/p>\n<h3>Short Q&amp;A<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Q: When would rules take effect?<\/strong> A: If a bill passes, effective dates will be in the statute; in the meantime, CFTC guidance or enforcement priorities could change sooner via notices or staff letters\u2014watch committee calendars and CFTC filings closely.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Do private platforms still get to list violent\u2011event contracts?<\/strong> A: Schiff\u2019s DEATH BETS Act targets federally regulated exchanges; platforms operating outside such jurisdiction might continue offerings unless a separate state or federal action forbids them. Expect legal challenges and platform policy shifts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What are practical red flags for insider trading?<\/strong> A: Suspiciously timed large orders by accounts connected to government staff, repetitive profitable bets immediately before public actions, and refusal to produce identity or custody records when regulators request them are signals that should prompt suspension and forensic review.<\/p>\n<div class=\"nacm-link-wrapper\" style=\"width:90%;margin:28px auto;\">\n<div class=\"nacm-link-box-title\" style=\"font-size:0.9em;font-weight:800;margin:0 0 12px 4px;letter-spacing:0.3px;\">Additional Resources<\/div>\n<div class=\"nacm-highlight-item\" style=\"display:flex;background:#ffffff;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;margin:10px 0;box-shadow:0 6px 18px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);transition:box-shadow .25s ease, transform .25s ease;\">\n<div style=\"flex:0 0 6px;background:#00d9ff;border-top-left-radius:12px;border-bottom-left-radius:12px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding:14px 16px;display:flex;align-items:center;line-height:1.45;min-height:56px;background:#ffffff;\"><a class=\"nacm-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/predict-act-latest-congressional-bill-seeking-to-limit-congress-prediction-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" style=\"font-size:0.82em;font-weight:600;color:#1a1a1a;line-height:1.45;text-decoration:none;\">Predict Act Would Ban Congress From Certain Prediction Markets<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"nacm-highlight-item\" style=\"display:flex;background:#ffffff;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;margin:10px 0;box-shadow:0 6px 18px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);transition:box-shadow .25s ease, transform .25s ease;\">\n<div style=\"flex:0 0 6px;background:#00d9ff;border-top-left-radius:12px;border-bottom-left-radius:12px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding:14px 16px;display:flex;align-items:center;line-height:1.45;min-height:56px;background:#ffffff;\"><a class=\"nacm-link\" href=\"https:\/\/defirate.com\/news\/congress-introduces-wave-of-bills-targeting-prediction-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" style=\"font-size:0.82em;font-weight:600;color:#1a1a1a;line-height:1.45;text-decoration:none;\">Congress Introduces Wave of Bills Targeting Prediction Markets &#8211; DeFi Rate<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"nacm-highlight-item\" style=\"display:flex;background:#ffffff;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden;margin:10px 0;box-shadow:0 6px 18px rgba(0,0,0,0.15);transition:box-shadow .25s ease, transform .25s ease;\">\n<div style=\"flex:0 0 6px;background:#00d9ff;border-top-left-radius:12px;border-bottom-left-radius:12px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding:14px 16px;display:flex;align-items:center;line-height:1.45;min-height:56px;background:#ffffff;\"><a class=\"nacm-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blakemoore.house.gov\/media\/press-releases\/representatives-moore-carbajal-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-regulate-prediction-markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" style=\"font-size:0.82em;font-weight:600;color:#1a1a1a;line-height:1.45;text-decoration:none;\">Representatives Moore, Carbajal Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Regulate Prediction Markets | U.S. Congressman Blake Moore<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Congress is zeroing in on insider\u2011trading risks in prediction markets: the PREDICT Act and several companion bills would explicitly forbid federal elected officials, their families and senior appointees from trading on contracts tied to government actions or politically sensitive events, and would attach civil penalties and disgorgement for violations. Who these bills single out and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4447,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1579,1577,1578,1582,1575,1581,1580,1576,392],"class_list":["post-4449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-cftc-enforcement","tag-death-bets-act","tag-federal-ethics","tag-government-transparency","tag-insider-trading","tag-market-regulation","tag-political-event-trading","tag-predict-act","tag-prediction-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blockchaincasinohub.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}